Stock Market Predictions Today For 2012 - Forecasting Future Stock and Forex Market Trends
Indispensable source for investors - 6 months stock market predictions center for DOW, S&P500, NASDAQ, gold, oil, EUR/USD, and other financial assets.
Are Stock Market Predictions Reliable?
Many people say it is not possible to forecast stock markets. We agree, but only to certain degree. It is not possible to predict stock markets 100% correct, but you can still predict them with high probability. Methods and models used are very different. Some rely on technical analysis, some on fundamentals, some use general economic data to predict stock markets, some measure market sentiment (like for example Predict WallStreet, and some use artificial intelligence for predicting purposes. While it can be discussable which method or model works best, it is more than obvious that stock market predictions can be achieved. Otherwise brokerage houses and related institutions wouldn't employ thousands of analysts for this job.
Every investor and trader should have an idea about where financial trends are headed. Have you heard already that most of the stocks trend mostly in the same direction than major stock indices? Did you notice that if U.S. stock indices fall it is most likely the trend will continue in Asia and Europe the other day? Do you think that some economic forecasts, like real GDB growth rate, inflation rate, housing starts, consumer price index, gold price, crude oil price, natural gas price, commodities prices, jobs growth, unemployment rate, personal income, retail sales, industrial production index, consumer credit, personal savings, M2 money supply and others have any influence on future stock market prices? You bet they do! Trends in financial industry have become more correlated than ever before. Globalization has done its job in stock market trading also.
Now, imagine you focus your stock market research on one specific company that is on your watch list of stocks to buy. You read all the latest reports, dig in to financial figures, check the management, compare the company to its competitors, you calculate some fundamental data like price to earnings ratio (P/E), ROE, debt/equity ratio and others and you compare them to industry and major competitors, you do the charting and some basic technical analysis and you final conclusion is: BUY the stock. Now, if you have done all this without being familiar with broad global economic trends, you haven't done a good job.
There are several studies made about the importance of asset allocation and other factors influencing investor's portfolio return. You would be surprised, but the most important part of your portfolio return is not stock picking, but being in the right asset class at the right time. That means it is far more important to analyze and research weather you should be in stocks, bond, commodities, afterwards in which country/region and industry/sector, than stock picking. To put it in another words, you should rather focus your research on whether is it a good time to be in stocks, is it a good time to be in the technology sector, and only then you should narrow down your research to stock picking and asking yourself, wheatear to buy Apple, Google, Microsoft, Dell, or Hewlett-Packard for example.
To make the research process easier for you, we decided to implement some of the major stock index forecasts, interest rate forecasts, currency exchange forecasts, and general economic forecasts into our website. The thanks for making data publicly available for redistribution goes to Forecasts.org, where all the forecasts are actually prepared based on complex artificial intelligence. We have only added some value by recalculating some of their data and presenting them in more user friendly format. We have also decided to republish only few selected forecasting figures, which are in the closest relation to stock market investing, while you will find the whole list of forecasts at the provider's website, including long range forecasts, which can be obtained via their subscription service. Hopefully you will enjoy the stock market predictions charts found here and you will comment on them, tweet them, and share them, so that others will be able to take advantage of this valuable information as well.
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Written by: Goran Dolenc